Introducing Dynamic Investment Theory and Dynamic Investments
This is the Future of Investing
The world of investing is about to change at a fundamental level. Welcome to a Web Page that describes why this change is needed and what it looks like. For far too long we have been investing using methods from 1952 when Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) was introduced. While equity markets have evolved significantly since then, MPT methods have barely changed at all and they can't cope with modern volatile markets. We, at the National Association of Online Investors (NAOI), saw this clearly in 2008 when markets crashed and the MPT portfolios we were teaching our students to created crashed with them.
At that point we stopped all education classes and began a research effort aimed at finding and developing an alternative to MPT, one designed specifically to thrive in today’s markets. We met our goal in 2017 with the release of Dynamic Investment Theory (DIT) and an innovative investment type it creates called NAOI Dynamic Investments. You will learn how they work on this page and how the world of investing is about to change for the better as a result.
It takes just a few minutes to read the information presented here, but it will be time well spent. You are about to get just a glimpse of the future of investing and learn how to prepare for it now.
The NAOI Study that Changes Everything
The National Association of Online Investors (NAOI) has recently completed a multi-year study to find an updated approach to investing that is able to thrive in 21st Century equity markets. Following extensive research we met this goal with the discovery and development of Dynamic Investment Theory (DIT). DIT creates a revolutionary investment type called Dynamic Investments (DIs) that will change the world of investing as we know it for both individual investors and the financial services industry. You will learn about both on this Web page.
The Study Findings Release - and a Valuable Opportunity
Soon we will make Dynamic Investment Theory widely known to the public and the financial services industry via a nationwide Press Release. The purpose of this page is to provide a pre-release summary of this revolutionary investing approach to a select group of financial professionals who I believe are well positioned to take maximum advantage of it now.
The NAOI is prepared to offer cooperative arrangements to financial organizations that will enable them to gain a massive competitive advantage by being among the first to learn about Dynamic Investments and how they provide clients with performance that MPT portfolios can’t touch, with less risk and no active management involved. An opportunity like this is rare in the world of investing.
About the National Association of Online Investors (NAOI)
I founded the NAOI in 1997 to empower individuals to invest with confidence and success. We have taught thousands of individuals the art and science of investing via our books, online courses, college courses and the market's only Individual Investor Certification Program. Yet, in 2008 when the market crashed, we saw that education was not enough to empower individuals to become successful investors . Also needed was innovation. To meet this need we formed the NAOI Research Division to supplement and enhance our education offerings.
The Need for Change
For the first ten years of our existence, the NAOI taught traditional investing and portfolio design methods based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) - today's "settled science" approach to portfolio design and investing in general.
However, when the stock market crashed in 2008 and MPT-based portfolios crashed along with it, I cancelled all future NAOI education classes. I realized that we were doing our students no favors by teaching then how to create portfolios based a theory introduced to the market in 1952! I saw that while markets had changed significantly since the 1950's, MPT had barely changed at all and the "static" portfolios it creates simply were not able to cope with modern "dynamic" markets.
At that point I refocused NAOI resources from education to research and initiated a study to find a new and better approach to investing; one designed to thrive in 21st century markets. The chart, at right, illustrates the problem with MPT and the promise of an updated approach called DIT that is discussed on this page.
Starting with Investor Goals
We started our research efforts by first conducting an in-depth study of today's individual investor experience. Our goal was to learn what the average person with money to invest needed to confidently and successfully interact with the market. Fortunately the NAOI has direct access to hundreds of members and students who are the target market. Via interviews and surveys they told us that they wanted the following major improvements to how investing works today:
A less complex world of investing - i.e. simplify!
Higher investing returns in all economic conditions with less risk
Absolute protection from market crashes such as the one they experienced in 2008
Absolute protection from investor abuse - e.g. churning, sales bias, inappropriate advice, scams and fraud
We quickly realized that we could not meet any of these goals using MPT portfolio design methods. So we started our research with a blank slate. We would not be constrained by the decades-old MPT methods in universal use today.
Following multiple years of research, testing and development we discovered a superior approach to investing that met all of the goals given to us by the public. The approach consists of both a new Investing Theory and a new Investment Type that is defined by the theory. Both are explained below.
Introducing Dynamic Investment Theory (DIT)
To develop a new, scientifically-based theory of investing we first needed to identifying the only things we know about market price movements with a high degree of certainty. One would think we know a lot. We don't. Following is the complete list:
Market prices are cyclical - they move up and down on a periodic basis
Different assets, markets and market segments move up and down at different times - e.g. when stocks move down, bonds tend to move up and vice versa
That's it. But it was enough to enable us to formulate and develop the new, comprehensive investment theory that we needed to fulfill our mission. From these two observable elements of market dynamics we created the premise that at all times and in all economic conditions there exists positive returns potential somewhere in the market.
Our next step was to create a theory that would provide a logical basis and set of rules for creating a new investment type that could take advantage of cyclical markets. We did so and called it Dynamic Investment Theory or DIT for short. DIT creates a new investment type that we call Dynamic Investments or DIs for short. DIs are discussed next.
Introducing Dynamic Investments (DIs)
Dynamic Investments (DIs) automatically change the ETF they hold based on a periodic sampling of market trends. Whereas MPT-based, asset-allocation portfolios must, at all times, hold both winning and losing investments to reduce risk, DIs strive to hold ONLY winning investments. By doing so, DIs are able to produce returns that today's "experts" will say are impossible. And they do so without excessive risk and no active management required. This investment type is a huge leap forward in the evolution of investing!
The components of all DIs are shown in the diagram at right and defined below:
Dynamic Equity Pool (DEP) - Dynamic Investments work with groups of Mutual Funds or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that are placed in its DEP. Chosen by a DI Designer to meet a specific investing goal, these equities specify the areas of the market where the DI will search for positive returns. They are "candidates" for purchase. Only the one trending up in price most strongly at the time of a Review is bought and held until the next Review as described next. ETFs are used in the examples provided below.
Review Period - The ETFs in the DEP are periodically ranked to determine which is trending up most strongly at a predefined Review event. The "winner" is the one that is bought and held for one Period until the next Review event. The Review Period is a variable that is defined by the DI Designer. An example would be "quarterly."
Price Trend Indicator - This is the price chart indicator that is used to rank the ETFs in the DEP at a Review event. Only the ETF with the strongest positive price trend is selected for purchase and held until the next Review event. The Trend Indicator is a variable that is defined by the DI Designer. The NAOI will share one that works extremely well with individuals or organizations with whom we work.
Trailing Stop Loss Order - Not shown in the diagram is a Stop-Loss component that is a DI-designer option. It protects the value of the DI should the ETF it owns drop significantly in price during the relatively short time it is held between Review periods. This component is used to provide absolute protection from market crashes. The performance numbers shown below were produced without a Stop-Loss order in place.
In the NAOI book entitled The Amazing Future of Investing, described below on this page, we suggest a Review Period and a Trend Indicator that extensive testing has shown work exceptionally well. By holding these two variables as constants, DI Designers are able to focus on finding an optimal mix of ETFs to place in the DEP. In the book we show the design of several well tested, high performance, Dynamic Investments and their DEPs. These are DIs that readers can begin using immediately to obtain the level of performance discussed next.
Dynamic Investment Performance - The NAOI Primary DI
Theories are a dime a dozen. It is performance that counts. Do Dynamic Investments work? Extensive NAOI back-testing across multiple time periods and economic conditions showed us that they do work and amazingly well.
As just one example, let's look at a simple DI designed by the NAOI called the NAOI Primary DI that holds just three ETFs in its DEP - two for Stocks and one for Bonds. It automatically rotates between owning one of these ETFs based on a quarterly sampling of the price trends of each.
The NAOI Primary DI produced the returns displayed in the top data row of the table presented below along with its Average Annual Returns for the test period from 2008 to 2018 and its Sharpe Ratio which is a measure of how much return is produced for each unit of risk taken; the higher the better. For comparison purposes I have shown in the bottom data row the performance of a traditional MPT portfolio with the allocations indicated.
You can see that the Primary DI performance is nothing short of amazing. And this performance was achieved with significantly lower risk, as indicated by the higher Sharpe Ratio, and no active management required (i.e. the trades can be automated). All trades were made based on objective trend data, not on the subjective judgments of advisors or analysts.
How are returns like this possible? There are multiple reasons, but chief among them is that the DI is "market-sensitive"; able to automatically and rapidly change the ETF held to take advantage of current market trends. The "static" MPT portfolio simply held both asset types (Stocks and Bonds) throughout the period, ensuring that the portfolio held both winning AND losing investments at all times to reduce risk but also reduce returns. DIs add a "time-diversification" element that not only reduces risk but also ehnances returns.
"The NAOI foresees a future in which the NAOI Primary Dynamic Investment is included as one building block in almost every portfolio, regardless of its goal, to both enhance returns and reduce risk. It will act like the ballast on a ship, keeping a portfolio's value steadily growing in any market turbulence that it encounters."
Leland B. Hevner
The NAOI Primary DI is just one of an unlimited number of DIs that can be created using rules set forth in Dynamic Investment Theory. In The Amazing Future of Investing book, discussed below on this page, we show the design of several other DIs that produce similar returns using ETFs from different areas of the market. And we show potential developers how to create a product line of DIs for a full range of investing goals.
DIT and DIs introduce multiple unique concepts, tools and methods to the world of investing. Below are just a few. Others are discussed in The Amazing Future of Investing book.
Time Diversity - Dynamic Investments are the first investment type to take advantage of a new diversity element that we call "time-diversity." While the company and asset diversity elements employed by both MPT and DIT portfolios only reduce risk, time-diversity reduces risk AND increases returns. This is why DIs can consistently produce performance like that shown in the above table.
Market Sensitivity - MPT portfolios are both "static" and "dumb". Because they utilize a buy-and-hold strategy, their value moves up and down at the whims of the market with no plan to buy or sell. In stark contrast, DIs are "dynamic" and internally "smart"; capable of automatically changing the ETF held based on a periodic sampling of market trends. The introduction of market-sensitive investments and portfolios is a major evolutionary advance in the world of investing.
Trade Decision Objectivity - Financial experts will tell you that DIT can't work because it uses a buy-and-sell methodology, and people simply are not smart enough to consistently select winning investments. This is correct, PEOPLE can't. But DIT does not ask them to. DIs automatically signal trades based on a sampling of objective market trends, not on subjective human analysis and judgments. And history shows that the MARKET is a lot smarter at predicting future price movements than any one, or group of, human analysts.
The Productization of Investing - Dynamic Investments (DIs) are a unique investment vehicle the likes of which the market has never seen. DIs specify the ETFs to work with AND how they are to be managed on an ongoing basis. They are active investments that are passively managed and can simply be bought and held for the long-term by investors. And each is a standardized investment product that investors will be able to buy off-the-shelf from a variety of vendors. In DIs, the NAOI has found the Holy Grail of the financial world - the productization of investing!
DIs eliminate the "guess-fest" that is investing today by basing trade decisions on objective market trend observations as opposed to subjective human judgments! By doing so, the use of DIs makes the investing process simpler, more profitable and less risky - all goals set for us by the investing public. This is the "evolution of investing" at its finest.
Below are the application areas addressed in this section of site. A separate Web page is dedicated to each on the NAOI site dedicated to a more detailed description of Dynamic Investment Theory at www.DITheory.com. Click your application below to see how it will benefit from the use of Dynamic Investments.
The Entire Financial Services Industry (go to page)
ETF Creators and Vendors (go to page)
Portfolio Designers and Mangers (go to page)
ETF Product Researchers (go to page)
Dynamic Investment Designers (go to page)
Financial Planners (go to page)
Investment Advisors (go to page)
Index Creators (go to page)
401k Plan Users and Providers (go to page)
Discount Brokers (go to page)
Academia (go to page)
And there are others. The entire financial services industry is about to undergo fundamental change. Those organization that recognize this fact will have a massive competitive advantage.
The Book: "The Amazing Future of Investing"
Format: 8.5" x 11.0", comb-bound for easy "lay-flat" study
Publish Date: April, 2018
Publisher: National Association of Online Investors, Tampa, FL
Price: $249 (for a limited time)
To Purchase: Go to the NAOI Store
Book Content Description
5+ years in the writing, this book changes the world of investing at a fundamental level. It transforms the way we invest from today's "static", buy-and-hold portfolio design approach to a far more profitable and less risky "dynamic", buy-and-sell approach. And it changes the way investing decisions are made from today's "subjective judgment" methods to far more accurate scientific methods based on objective observation of empirical market data.
By reading this book and offering Dynamic Investments financial organizations will be able to offer significantly higher performance investments and portfolios, increase their market base, expand their product lines virtually overnight, open significant new revenue streams and gain massive competitive advantage in a crowded field. There is more actionable information contained in this book than is found in consulting contracts costing tens of thousands of dollars! The ROI of buying this book is off the charts.
Why Change Is Inevitable
Fundamental change of the nature discussed here does not come easily to the rather staid world of investing. But change from static investing methods to dynamic investing methods is inevitable for these reasons among others:
Demand. The NAOI is teaching Dynamic Investment Theory to the public via the above described book, extensive market efforts and our investor education courses. When the public learns about the simplicity, high performance and low risk of Dynamic Investments, they will demand them. Financial organizations that offer DIs will meet this demand and thrive. Those that don't will find themselves at a tremendous competitive disadvantage.
Competition. When even one major financial organization begins offering DIs, all others will be forced to do the same in order to compete.
Do It Yourself Investors. Dynamic Investments are so easy to understand, implement and manage that individual investors will be able to do so on their own using an online broker; bypassing financial advisors completely. Thus, if they can't find an advisor or organization that offers DIs they have the DIY option.
Many in the financial industry are happy with the way investing works today. After all, the status quo is making them rich. But the investing public will have the final say in this matter. And their message will be "embrace and offer Dynamic Investments or we will either find an organization that does or invest on our own using an online broker if we must." When the market becomes aware of DIs, change in the financial services industry will not be optional.
Opportunities and Action Items
Unprecedented opportunities abound in the extremely rare instance where the field of investing makes an evolutionary leap forward. To take full advantage of these opportunities, the NAOI offers to financial organizations the following action items:
Purchase The Amazing Future of Investing book described just above. You can do so in the NAOI Store. Quantity discounts are available for qualifying organizations.
Consider having the NAOI conduct a DIT introductory Education Seminar at your facilities
Consider an NAOI Consulting Contract or Advisory Agreement that will show how Dynamic Investments can be integrated into your products/services in order to gain massive competitive advantage
Consider an NAOI Research Partnership that enables you to work with the NAOI to continue the development of DIT
Join our NAOI Updates Email List at the bottom of this page. We are releasing new DIT-related Product Developments, Dynamic Investments and DI Applications at a rapid rate. Joining our opt-in list enables you to be among the first to be learn about them
To discuss any of these action items or for any other question please contact me directly at LHevner@naoi.org or via LinkedIn. At this early stage, an exclusive arrangement is possible.